NFL Survivor Pool

So if there was a lesson to be learned in week four, it’s that it may not always be the best idea to pick the two heaviest favored teams based on Vegas’ lines. Unfortunately, that lesson came a little late for 47 players this week, which also represents 47% of the active players going into week 4. Denver turned the ball over four times, allowing the Chiefs to win its first game since October of last year, and the Skins upended Dallas on their own turf. And then there were 53 left standing.

Of the 47 losses, 26 are eligible for buyback. If you wish to buyback, I must have the entry fee by Sunday at 10am ET. The preferred method is via Paypal. Must be drawn from a bank account, no credit/debit cards.

Just a reminder, ONLY send your picks to bill at billma dot com. I know that sometimes I’ve sent pool-related emails from the wrong address, but please do not send any picks to that email address. ONLY send picks to this one. I’m getting some people’s picks multiple times because they feel they need to copy every email address I own on their pick submissions.

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Another interesting week.

It was a week of close calls for the two most popular picks this week. The Bills, eight point favorites over the Raiders, needed a last-second field goal to win by one point. (In fact they were my upset pick of the week in another pool I’m in.) The Giants, 10.5 point favorites, needed overtime to beat the Bengals.

For the next popular team, it wasn’t quite so close. 22 players picked the Pats, who got pasted by the Fins. Throw in losses by the Bears (4), Saints (1), and Panthers (1), a total of 28 players lost on Sunday.

On a unrelated note (cuz noone picked this game), did you see the Eagles O have its worst game of the season so far (granted, they were without five starters for most of the game and McNabb was playing injured), but the same D that gave up 41 points on MNF kept Rottensberger on his back most of the game? Nine sacks, a safety, three turnovers, 2-for-13 on third down, 1.7 yards per carry… whew.

Unrelated note #2: The Seahawks beat the Rams as expected, so the only conclusion we can draw is that noone really wants to win the NFC West. P-U.

Unrelated note #3, Phils are now up 1.5 games over the Mets in the NL East with six games to go. The Mets bullpen melted down again and gave up a late lead. Not quite as historic a meltdown as last year.

So through three weeks, 54 players have been eliminated with 45 of those being permanent (either not buying back in a previous week or already having lost twice). Not including the four players picking the Chargers tonight, nine of those eliminated on Sunday are eligible for buyback. If you wish to buyback, send me $15 by Sunday at 10am ET. Paypal payments funded with bank accounts only. No credit/debit cards.

For the rest of you, all picks are due by Sunday at 10am ET. Thanks to everyone (except one person) for getting their picks to me on time this week.

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Of the teams you guys picked to win on Sunday, more lost (6) than won (5). Buffalo is 2-0 after the Jags go 2 of 11 on 3rd downs, Oakland’s Darren McFadden is doing his best Adrian Peterson impression in knocking off the Chiefs, and the Seahawks just plain stink to eliminate 40 players. Losses by the Saints, Bears, and Bretts add 4 more. Of those 44 losses, 7 were the buybacks from last week’s losses and are permanently eliminated.

Before week 2 buybacks, we have lost about 34% of the pool after two weeks, with about 11% permanently gone for the season (either not buying back after a week 1 loss or losing twice already).

We have players picking both sides of tonight’s NFC East matchup, so we’re gonna lose at least one more. Go Iggles!

If you lost this week and it wasn’t your second loss, you are eligible to buyback this week. It is $15/entry, and I must receive your buyback by Sunday at 10am ET. Best method is Paypal. All funds must be drawn from a confirmed bank account (which takes 3-4 business days to setup if you don’t already have one). No credit/debit cards, I will deny the payments.

For everyone else, submit your picks by Sunday at 10:00am ET. NO EXCEPTIONS. I’m not responsible if you forget, you slept in too late, you fatfingered my email address, your ISP delayed delivering your email, or some other excuse I haven’t heard yet. I use my mail server’s time stamp to determine if your picks arrived on time or not, if at all.

All of the weekly deadlines are posted on the rules page of the web site. You do not have to wait until Sunday to send in your picks; I will gladly accept them when the previous week is done.

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Week one is always interesting.

Peyton was confused by the Bears’ defense, Delhomme threw a touchdown with no time on the clock, Matt Ryan was better than advertised, and the Seahawks, well, just sucked. All contributed to 30% of the pool (45 of 152) losing in the first week of play, with the Colts (17) and Chargers (16) contributing the most.

If you lost a player, you have the option to buy back. I would highly suggest Paypal. It is $15 per buy back. Just to clarify a question that came up last year, if you lost this week and choose not to buy back that player, you cannot change your mind next week. You must buy it back by this week’s deadline (Sunday at 10am) or else that player is out permanently for the rest of the year. Also, each player can only be bought back once.

For everyone else, all picks are due by Sunday at 10am Eastern Time, no grace period this week. Special thanks for everyone that doesn’t wait until Sunday to send in their picks, much appreciated. It’s much easier to spread out the updates to the pick list over the entire week.

So who’s going to take the Brady-less Patriots this week against the New York Bretts?

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I’d just like to thank everyone for signing up. A lot of last minute entries this year, apparently I’m pretty high up on the google search results. As of this morning, we’ve pushed past the 150 player mark; we are now sitting at 152 paid players. This is a far cry from when I started doing this for myself and a few friends (36 players in 2002), and even almost double from last year (86).

One thing I realized this morning is that although the time zone is listed on the rules page of the web site, my email reminders thus far have not. So I’d just like to clarify that all deadlines I list are in EASTERN TIME.

This doesn’t affect the 124 of you that have already made their picks this week, but for the 30 or so that haven’t yet, you have about 2 1/2 hours (from when I’m sending this email) to make your pick. The deadline is Sunday at 10am ET.

A few of you have asked, but I don’t have a player login system in place yet. It was one of those things that I wanted to do this past offseason, but just never got around to it with a 1yo around.

Thanks, and let me know if there are any questions.

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