Week 15 recap and buyback thoughts
This is the definitely the time of the season where it becomes harder to pick a team. Most of the sure bets have already been used, so that shows why 19 players picked 7 different teams.
I didn’t get to catch too much of the action on Sunday, but based on the box scores, a lot of games were close. The Lions almost pulled a fast one on the Colts, the 49ers outgained the Fins in every stat but the score, the Bungles upset the Skins (for our lone loser this week), the refs handed the AFC to the Steelers, and the Bills were a fumble return away from beating the Bretts.
On to week 16: In addition to the Thursday night game, there’s also a Saturday night game this week. So if you want to pick either of those games, you have to get the picks to me by 5pm on the respective game days. Otherwise, all other picks by 10am on Sunday.
I also wanted to review some of the options suggested in a previous blog post. One of the suggestions was to raise the entry fee, which I really don’t want to do. That’s the reason I stopped entering the one I used to play in and started my own pool.
I would entertain the idea of shortening the buyback period though. Let’s see what this season would have looked like after 15 weeks. There’s still two more weeks to play, but for this exercise, let’s assume the season is over and it’s time to split the pot. Let’s also assume that no one has any special strategies regarding whether they still have a buyback available or not.
First, let’s baseline: With five weeks of buybacks after 15 weeks of play, we have 18 remaining players and $2,775 to split. That’s $154.16 per player.
Okay, but what if we shorten buyback by a week: If noone is allowed to buyback in week 5, we’d only lose one more. So with 17 remaining players and $2,715 to split, that’s $159.70 per player.
One more: With only three weeks of buybacks, after 15 weeks we would have 14 players and $2,460. That’s $175.71 per player. Still not that big of a haul, but in this economy…
What if we just do two weeks: No one still in the game used a buyback in week 3, so we’d still have 14 players but now only $2,370 to split, or $172.50 per player.
Just one week: Now we’re down to 9 players and $2,010 to split. That’s $223.33 per player.
And if we rid of buybacks altogether: 6 players still in the game have not lost through 15 weeks, and each would get $250.
Draw your conclusions.
December 16th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
Interesting breakdown about shortening the buyback weeks. As your research shows, it does not help much with cutting a week or two of buybacks out or eliminating them all together. I like it the way it is now b/c makes the pot bigger. How about this for a possible solution. Have players pick more than one game in the last week of the season or even pick three game and use that to help breakdown a payout structure. For example: Those who go 3 for 3 in week 17 get 50% of winnings, 2 for 3 get 30%, 1 for 3 get 20%.
Example with our current situation: 18 players with $2275
3 Players go 3 for 3 = Each win $462.50 (1387.50/3)
5 Players go 2 for 2 = Each win $166.50 (832.50/5)
10 Players go 1 for 1 = Each win $55 (555/10)
December 16th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
I like the rules as is with 1 buyback, but would maybe interested in raising the entry fee to possibly avoid so many buybacks.
December 17th, 2008 at 9:47 am
Per my earlier post, I’d like to add that those who did not have to buyback whould automatically be put into the top 50% winnings payout. Raising the buybacks maybe another viable option. From like $15 to $25 or $30.
December 21st, 2008 at 2:10 pm
Another thought for next year is to have everyone’s pick shown at kickoff of the game they picked. It’s almost halftime of the 1 o’clock games and everyones pick’s are still not up.
December 21st, 2008 at 3:07 pm
Lenny, I normally do reveal everyone’s picks once I receive them all. However, I hadn’t gotten the last pick prior to me running out to Lowes to pick up a few things for my weekend project. I posted them as soon as I got home and checked my email.
December 21st, 2008 at 7:15 pm
Bill, I understand. I was just saying since we were talking about changes that is one to possibly consider. Even when someone takes the Thursday Night or Saturday Night game have their pick’s shown as soon as the game kickoffs. Figures I lose with Houston when I really wanted to take the Saints. lol Goodluck the rest of the way to all remaining players.
December 22nd, 2008 at 6:39 am
Yeah, I mentioned the whole Thursday and Saturday night issue last week. Definitely something I want to take a look at fixing.
When I originally wrote the software for the pool, there weren’t any Thursday night games, so it wasn’t an issue. Back then, for the weeks at the end of the season where there were Saturday night games, I just made the deadline to be Saturday instead of Sunday, so all picks were always submitted before any game is played.